Intro:
For US President Barack Obama, 2014 has in some ways been a year of reverses - politically and strategically, getting involved in Syria and Iraq even as he brought troops home from Afghanistan. And in 2015, the engines will start revving in the race to succeed him in the White House, which is why the next 12 months could be critical in determining his legacy. Lorna Shaddick in Washington takes a look back at a difficult foreign policy year for the President, and examines the challenges facing him in 2015.
Script:
UPSOT cheers
A crowd of friends and family members whoop and cheer at a small base in Indiana....
...as members of the 1313th Engineer Company return home from their deployment in Afghanistan.
It was scenes like this that President Obama was hoping would - at least in part - define his presidency…
... getting American troops out of a long foreign entanglement in Afghanistan
The President outlined that strategy in his address to graduates of the West Point military academy in June:
SOT - Super: Barack Obama, US President (26 May 2014)
U.S. military action cannot be the only - or even primary - component of our leadership in every instance. Just because we have the best hammer does not mean that every problem is a nail.
But just a few months later, the Islamic State organisation's ruthless sweep through northern Iraq tested that new policy to its limits - especially when it became clear the President was unsure how best to react:
SOT - Super: Barack Obama, US President
I don't want to put the cart before the horse. We don't have a strategy yet…
Eventually, a US-led international coalition was formed to carry out airstrikes against the group, in Iraq and then in Syria… But Michael O'Hanlon, senior fellow at Washington's Brookings Institution, thinks 2015 is unlikely to bring much resolution to the conflict there:
In Syria we need to develop some assets, help the moderate opposition do better, save some lives through humanitarian assistance, maybe help create a small safe zone in the north part of the country with the Turks and others, but I'm not sure we can really hope for major improvement.
The airstrikes gave Washington a strange new ally… Iran, which had also spoken out against the Islamic State.
Negotiations between Tehran, the US and five other world powers, have been extended twice in 2014. Now all eyes will be on the next deadline for a final agreement- 1st July 2015.
John Limbert is a US diplomat, who was held hostage in the US embassy in Tehran 35 years ago. He's optimistic.
SOT - Super: John Limbert, Former US Embassy Hostage, Professor of Middle Eastern Studies, US Naval Academy
Compared to where we and the Iranians have been for 34 years, 35 years, in the last year we've made a tremendous amount of progress. // We're not trading insults and threats any more, our two foreign ministers meet. // And they describe their meetings as productive.
Another foreign policy crisis grabbing Barack Obama's attention came in February with the fall of Ukrainian president Victor Yanukovych. After armed uprisings from pro-Russian groups, supported by the Kremlin…
…and the shooting down of a Malaysian Airlines jet in rebel-held territory, the President instigated US sanctions against Russia… 2015 could see more diplomatic effort to broker an agreement.
As the build up to the 2016 presidential election begins, there's likely to be much discussion of the Senate Intelligence Committee's damning report into gruesome post 9/11CIA torture techniques. Questions over the legality of those tactics - and the roles of the White House, the CIA and Congress - are ones still likely to be faced by President Obama's successor…
And 2015 will be a year that will see the candidates for THAT job start throwing their hats in the ring. Lorna Shaddick, Washington.
