Wednesday, December 21, 2016

UK BIZ YEAR-AHEAD

In the UK, 2017's business year will likely be dominated by Brexit.

As the country prepares to leave the European Union, the UK economy is likely to face challenges amid uncertainty.

Olly Barratt looks ahead from London at the economic year ahead.

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IN: "Brexit means…
OUT: SOC
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UPSOT:


"Brexit means Brexit…"

"Brexit means Brexit…"

"Brexit means Brexit…"

"Brexit means Brexit…"

"Brexit means Brexit…"

"Brexit means Brexit…"

"We're going to make a success of it…"


VO:

The phrases repeated over and over by UK Prime Minister Theresa May since she took office.


Neither sentence really means anything, of course…and the government hasn't wanted to set out full details of its hopes for negotiations - for fear of harming its bargaining position.


That makes life difficult for businesses as they plan for 2017, according to Colin Stanbridge from the London chamber of commerce and industry.


"We understand the government are still deciding what it might mean. and they're not going to give a running commentary or whatever it is. All we're saying is, We don't want a running commentary, but we'd quite like to know some principles…about the sorts of things that Brexit might mean…."


One thing it will mean - is that the UK can start thinking in 2017 about trade deals it can do directly with other countries, once outside the EU.


And Donald Trump in the White House might mean faster progress towards a UK-US agreement.


PROFESSOR DAVID COLLINS is INTERNATIONAL LAW EXPERT at CITY UNIVERSITY


"He has a Scottish mother, he's shown to be something of an anglophile, and that's just as one man, the impetus within the US, I think in Congress and the Senate is very much one of free trade and the UK is a natural trading partner, so I think this is very likely."



2017 may see further moves towards more infrastructure spending as a way of boosting the UK economy amid Brexit uncertainty….


And while the European economy showed some signs of improvement in 2016,


GOVERNOR of the BANK OF ENGLAND Mark Carney says concerns persist.

 

"In some euro area economies the sovereign debt positions remain vulnerable to higher borrowing costs and weaker growth prospects that could be associated with trade or political risk. Moreover the challenges to the resilience to parts of the euro area of the banking system remain."



In London's financial district warnings will continue in 2017 that jobs could move to other European capitals if Brexit isn't handled appropriately…


And some economists predict the UK's relatively healthy recent GDP growth could take a hit over the next 12 months…


Economic forecasts always come with a health warning… they are of course just educated guesses…


And with so many unknowns surrounding Brexit and how it will play out…


2017's predictions should be taken with a rather large pinch of salt


OB, SOC