Wednesday, December 14, 2016

PKG: The European Union fears the rise of populism in 2017

It's been a difficult year for the European Union - as a key member, Britain, voted to leave. The EU fears this could just be the beginning of a rising tide of right-wing populism that threatens to overwhelm the continent - with key elections due in France, Germany and the Netherlands in 2017.

Elena Casas reports from Brussels. 


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SCRIPT:

Here in the heart of the European union, Britain's Brexit vote to leave the block was a blow to the European project and the shockwaves are likely to continue well into 2017. 

 

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European leaders have  been firm with the UK - there will be no negotiation without formal notification that the UK is leaving the block.

 

The EU is also determined Britain will not have its cake and eat it - rejecting talk of single market access unless Britain accepts freedom of movement for EU citizens.

 

SOT Donald Tusk June 29 2016

"Leaders made it absolutely crystal clear that access to the single market requires accepting all four freedoms, including the freedom of movement. There will be no single market a la carte."

 

Few analysts believe Brussels will compromise on key principles to secure trade with Britain, despite UK-EU trade being worth 510 billion dollars a year.

 

SOT Mari Demertzis, Bruegel

"It is a concern, but it's one of the concerns, there are a lot of concerns - if you're a German manufacturer you're worried about losing access - good access to the UK market, certainly."


For Europe's leaders, the priority is to set an example to voters in other countries - that leaving the EU will be painful.

 

SOT Jean-Claude Juncker

"If countries feel like they can have referendums on everything they disagree with we will never be able to govern Europe."


The leaders' fear is that Brexit has emboldened anti-European populists in other countries  - the Netherlands, France and Germany have general elections coming up in 2017, with far right anti-European forces topping the polls in France and the Netherlands.

 

Far right leaders wasted no time in celebrating Brexit.

 

SOT Marine Le Pen (Jun 24 2016)

"The British people have given the people of Europe a lesson in democracy - they did not give in to fear and apocalyptic predictions, they asserted the freedom that the system sought to deny them."

 

Le Pen is currently on top of the polls for May's presidential election - if she wins she's promised a referendum on France's membership of the EU which could bring the European project crashing down. 

 

With the socialist government of Francois Hollande now historically unpopular, Europe's best hope of stopping her is the recently chosen centre right candidate Francois Fillon. 


The uncertainty around the French election in May and the German polls due in September means that even if article 50 is triggered in March as Britain plans, Europe won't get down to the nitty gritty of negotiations until near the end of 2017.

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