Monday, June 11, 2018

Trump-Kim summit preview PKG

President Trump and Kim Jong Un will make history tomorrow when they become the first sitting leaders of the US and North Korea to meet in person.


On the agenda: addressing North Korea's nuclear weapons programme and much more - with the hope of achieving peace on the Korean peninsula.


Our Washington Correspondent Harry Horton looks ahead to a historic summit.


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SCRIPT


In just a few months - the war of words has been cast aside...

<<TAKE UPSOT>>

"They will be met with fire and fury like the world has never seen."

for flattery and diplomacy to take centre stage...

<<TAKE UPSOT>>

"Kim Jong Un, he really has been very open and I think very honourable from everything we're seeing."

In a quest to succeed where his predecessors failed, President Trump has bet that by meeting with Kim Jong Un, he can strike a up a relationship that could lead to denuclearisation.

But it won't be easy. Lindsey Ford, who was an Asia policy advisor at the Pentagon until 2015, says Kim has gone from an international pariah, to a world leader in diplomatic overdrive.

<<TAKE SOT: Lindsey Ford, US Department of Defence, 2009-2015>>

"I think he has proved more savvy on the international stage than perhaps people anticipated and in that sense I think from the perspective of American negotiators you need to actually take the North Koreans very seriously."

The US says Kim Jong Un is willing to denuclearise - the problem is agreeing on what that means, and how quickly it should happen.

One man who's negotiated with North Korea before is Michael Green. He was Asia Director at the National Security Council under President Bush - and says there needs to be a high bar if THESE negotiations are to be a success.

<<TAKE SOT: MICHAEL GREEN, NATIONAL SECURITY COUNCIL, 2001-2005>>

"Unless we see very very concrete, verifiable steps where inspectors can go in where things are dismantled… unless we see some of that we're probably looking at another case of North Korea getting a time out… getting a pass>>

In recent weeks President Trump has played down expectations and says the summit will be the start of a process.

But he has dangled the possibility of a peace deal between North and South Korea - formally ending an almost 70-year conflict.

<<TAKE SOT: DONALD TRUMP, US PRESIDENT>>

"We could sign an agreement. As you know, that would be a first step. It's what happens after the agreement that really is the big point. But yes, we could absolutely sign an agreement."

But some US allies - in particular Japan - are concerned about that approach. Here's Lindsey Ford.

<<TAKE SOT: Lindsey Ford, US Department of Defence, 2009-2015>>

"If you offer that right up front you remove your ability to continue to put pressure on the north Koreans in some way to move forward on denuclearization because you're not holding out incentives"

Without doubt this is Donald Trump's biggest gamble so far as president. He is determined to solve this crisis, and he's unlikely to get another opportunity like this again.

<<TAKE SOT: MICHAEL GREEN, NATIONAL SECURITY COUNCIL, 2001-2005>>

"If this doesnt work and is the president needs to keep pressure on and indeed increase pressure he's going to find it hard, because he's raised expectations so much it's going to be very difficult to get anyone other than the Japanese basically and perhaps EU allies to pressure North Korea. The Chinese aren't going to want to go back there - the South Koreans aren't - and there's no reason why they should because the US is not going to be credibly be able to say 'well that didn't work, we're going to use a military strike now.' I think that's off the table."

The meeting will be historic. But with such a mercurial duo - few people can predict much more than that.

Harry Horton, Washington